Three years after launch, REPowerEU remains one of the world’s most ambitious heating decarbonisation programmes: a target of 60 million additional heat pumps by 2030 to cut gas dependency and reach 49 % renewable heating. In 2024, Europe sold 2.31 million units – a 40 % jump from early years, though down 22 % from the 2023 peak due to subsidy adjustments and market normalisation. Here’s an honest, kind look at who’s leading, who’s catching up, and what the data tells us for the next five years.
Nordic Champions: Norway & Finland Show the Way
Norway – 48 new heat pumps per 1,000 households in 2024 (highest in Europe) and a total stock of 630 units/1,000 homes. Finland – 33 new units/1,000 households, with 520 total units/1,000 homes and strong ground-source adoption. Both countries prove that consistent subsidies, clear phase-out dates for fossil boilers, and cold-climate technology (COP 4.8–5.2 at –25 °C) create lasting momentum.
Germany & UK: Strong Foundations, Growing Pains
Germany sold 139,000 units in H1 2025 alone and has the largest absolute market. The 65 % renewable heating rule (2025) is driving demand, but installer capacity is still scaling – the country needs roughly 20,000 more qualified teams to keep pace.
United Kingdom is steadily building momentum (≈50,000 units/year) and has just launched its long-awaited Heat Pump Action Plan (autumn 2025) with increased grants. The UK shows that when policy clarity arrives, the market responds quickly.
North America’s Parallel Path – Lessons for Europe
USA – Inflation Reduction Act delivered 1.5 million projected installs in 2025 and a $11.2 billion market (8.4 % CAGR). Canada – Greener Homes programme funded 400,000 retrofits with average grants of $4,446 CAD, achieving 39 % energy savings in monitored homes.
Both show that fast, simple rebates and stackable incentives accelerate adoption more than complex regulations alone.
What’s Needed to Reach 60 Million? (Realistic & Positive)
EHPA’s latest outlook calls for 17 % average annual growth – ambitious but achievable with three proven levers we already see working in the leaders:
- Installer training– EU-wide programmes adding 100,000 technicians by 2030
- Stable, long-term subsidies– Norway/Finland model
- Next-gen tech– R290 units, geothermal hybrids, AI zoning (already delivering 37 % peak reduction in pilots)
At Kanion Co., we’re proud to supply 3D DC inverter units to many of these success stories. REPowerEU has already moved the needle further and faster than any previous programme – and the best years are still ahead.
Who do you think will be Europe’s surprise leader by 2030? Drop your thoughts below ↓
